Source: Eritrean Press
(EP) – A former foreign diplomat in Asmara provided a stark outlook on the future of Eritrea and Ethiopia, stating to Eritrean Press, “Predicting Ethiopia’s trajectory is straightforward in regards to Eritrea.”
“If the TPLF and Fano manage to unite – though Fano must first consolidate itself – they could march on Addis Ababa within two weeks. Abiy Ahmed’s army lacks the will to fight; they are weak, and his bravado does not impress foreign diplomats in Addis who share this assessment.”
The diplomat added, “However, once the Tigrayans and Amharas reach Addis, a fierce battle will ensue between them, likely within a week. The victor will then turn its focus toward Asmara. This creates a vicious cycle for Eritrea.”
“Abiy Ahmed’s leadership is marked by a series of strategic, yet often deceptive, political maneuvers that have led to accusations of betrayal against key allies and groups within Ethiopia and Eritrea that helped him against the Tigray war in 2020. His actions following the Nobel Peace Prize award, the sidelining of the prominent Oromo political figure Lemma Megersa, the disillusionment of Fano and OLF, the complex relations with Sudan and Somalia, and the strained ties now with Eritrea all contribute to a narrative of a leader whose primary concern appears to be the consolidation of power rather than fostering genuine unity and stability,” said the diplomat.
The diplomat then suggested to Eritrean Press, “For Ethiopian leadership, war with Eritrea feels like a long-standing vendetta; they seek revenge after the Eritreans defeated one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s strongest armies, the Derg. Eritrea cannot sustain its defense against a larger neighbour indefinitely. It must emerge from its isolationist stance and seek a powerful ally to break this vicious cycle.”
This brutally honest perspective reflects the diplomat’s deep connection to Eritrea, viewing it as a second home.
