Source: Borkena
By: Getahun Tsegaye
Staff Reporter
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s recent visit to Djibouti and his extensive discussions with President Ismail Omar Guelleh underscore a concerted effort by Red Sea coastal states to solidify their unified stance amidst increasing regional tensions. As reported by Egypt Today, this meeting gains significant weight against Ethiopia’s growing and vocal ambition for direct access to the Red Sea, a development that has sparked geopolitical concerns across the Horn of Africa.
Egypt Today highlighted that the two presidents “categorically rejected any actions that threaten the safety and freedom of navigation in the Red Sea,” emphasizing that “the primary responsibility for governing and securing this key maritime trade route rests solely with the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden littoral states.” This statement firmly reiterates Egypt’s long-standing position that only nations bordering the Red Sea should dictate the region’s maritime security framework – a principle Cairo views as non-negotiable.
Ethiopia, landlocked since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, has increasingly framed access to the sea as a critical national interest detrimental to its existence. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has publicly argued that Ethiopia’s large population, economic potential, and historical connections justify a reconsideration of its landlocked status, stating that sea access is not merely a privilege but a “natural right.” While Addis Ababa has not explicitly threatened military action, such rhetoric carries the potential to destabilize the region, given its delicate geopolitical landscape.
According to Egypt Today, the discussions between Egypt and Djibouti encompassed a broad spectrum of cooperation, ranging from defense and counterterrorism to water resources and education, illustrating a deep strategic alliance. Their agreement to contribute troops to the new African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) further demonstrates a shared commitment to containing insecurity that could potentially impact Red Sea maritime security.
In this context, a university professor specializing in hydropolitics, speaking anonymously to Borkena, suggested that “Egypt’s diplomatic push can be seen as part of a broader counterweight strategy against Ethiopia’s regional ambitions.” The expert elaborated, “It’s not just about port access—this is about power projection, influence in the Horn, and controlling the future of regional trade and security.” The symbolism of Egypt and Djibouti, both Red Sea littoral states, reaffirming their joint position while Ethiopia seeks maritime access sends a clear and strategic message: decisions regarding this crucial waterway will not be dictated by landlocked states or actors perceived as attempting to reshape the existing order.
Conversely, some analysts propose that Ethiopia’s renewed pursuit of sea access may serve purposes beyond purely strategic or economic ones. Observers speculate that the government’s maritime aspirations could be, at least in part, a calculated diversion from escalating domestic unrest, particularly the protracted conflict in the Amhara region, which has persisted for over two years with no clear end in sight.
A political analyst and lecturer at Addis Ababa University told Borkena that the maritime narrative might serve a dual purpose. “While Ethiopia’s desire for sea access is grounded in legitimate long-term strategic needs, its sudden prominence in the national discourse cannot be separated from the current internal instability,” he explained. “It is a convenient tool to rally nationalist sentiment and redirect attention away from internal divisions and the government’s struggles to contain the Amhara insurgency.”
The analyst further noted the timing, stating, “This is not the first time governments have turned to foreign policy narratives to consolidate internal control. By positioning Ethiopia as being unfairly landlocked and portraying its neighbors as gatekeepers to its economic future, the administration is mobilizing patriotic emotions in a way that can mute domestic criticism—at least temporarily.”
The Horn of Africa remains deeply unstable, with ongoing conflict in Sudan, political tensions within Ethiopia, and Somalia’s persistent challenges underscoring the urgency of regional cooperation. The security of the Red Sea, a vital global maritime corridor, is increasingly intertwined with the internal dynamics of these fragile states. Consequently, Egypt’s efforts to spearhead regional discussions on Red Sea governance may also be an attempt to preempt external interference, whether from neighboring landlocked states or global powers.
As the situation continues to unfold, Ethiopia’s pursuit of sea access could test not only its bilateral relationships with Eritrea and Djibouti but also the evolving security consensus among Red Sea nations. For Egypt and its allies, the priority remains clear: to uphold the integrity of the existing maritime order and prevent unilateral actions that could trigger broader conflict.
